1682 Robert La Salle reached the Mississippi River.
1867 The Senate approved the purchase of Alaska.
1890 Government conducts auction of buildings and furniture at Ft. Laramie. Attribution: On This Day.
Nate Champion, center, and Dud Champion, far right. Dud Champion would be murdered by an unknown killer the following year.
2004 Marine Corps Lance Corporal Chance Phelps killed in action in Iraq.
2016: Our entry for this date on Lex Anteinternet.
I started this thread at the commencement of the 2016 Election Season:
Tracking the Presidential Election, 2016
The focus of this blog, at least theoretically, is on events of a
century ago. Indeed, the event that really motivated the concept of a
novel and hence this support blog occurred 100 years ago, and is coming
right up. So we should be looking at the 1916 Presidential election.
That election, as the readers here well know, featured Woodrow Wilson in
a contest against Charles E. Hughes. Wilson, of course, campaigning on
"He kept us out of war" won.
President Woodrow Wilson.
Charles E. Hughes. Maybe the beard, in the post bearded era, did in his chances.
I can't compare that election to the current one, as it was nothing like
it. I can compare, and often have, President Obama with President
Wilson (without Wilson's racism, however) as in my view they're both
guilty of confusing talk with action.
When I did that it was my intent to run that thread all the way through to the end of the campaign.
It's proven to be impossible, however, as the thread has grown
impossibly large, and now when I update it the effect is to wipe out all
of the other posts on the first page of the blog. It's basically
threatening to suck the life out of the blog, the same way this election
is sucking the life out of the country, or so it seems.
So, I've decided to stop trying to update one single entry and start a
part two. There may be more parts later on, depending upon how things
go. There probably will be.
And this is a good point at which to do this, as the race really seems
to have turned a corner recently. It isn't the same race that the
pundits were declaring inevitable results for just a couple of weeks
ago, although it should be noted that we never did that here.
So, here's part two.
First, the tell of the tape as of today, following the Wisconsin victory
for Cruz and Sanders, and the Colorado victory for Sanders.
Democrats (needed to win 2,383)
Clinton: 1,740, or 1,739 (469 Superdelegates)
Sanders: 1055 or 1070 (31 Superdelegates).
Martin O'Malley: 1 (now out)
Republicans (needed to win, 1,237)
Donald Trump: 737 or 753 (1 of which is an unpledged delegate)
Ted Cruz: 505 or 478 (12 of which are unpledged).
Marco Rubio: 171 or 173 (now out)
John Kasich: 143 or 144
Ben Carson: 8 (now out)
Jeb Bush: 4 (now out).
Carly Fiorina: 1 (now out)
Ron Paul: 1 (now out).
Commentary.
First let us note that the Trump tallies have gone down, that's right, down, since the last tally.
And Marco Rubio's have gone up. Yes, up, even though he's out.
This race is far from over.
Now, I've been saying that all along, in spite of the press treatment of
this race as being over and Trump and Clinton as being the nominees.
They aren't the nominees yet.
And there's more than a fair chance they won't be.
Indeed the pundits have now stated that the race is up in the air. Last
weekend one of them actually blew up at the assertion that Sanders
couldn't win the Democratic nomination and that Trump had won the
Republican nomination. And there's suddenly a lot of discussion of the
convention rules and what they mean, or the fact that there really
aren't any rules.
A lot of things have gone into this, including a sharper focus in the
GOP race on the various positions and statements of the candidates. And
in spite of the assertions to the contrary, Kasich remaining in the race
appears to be hurting Trump but not helping Cruz. On the Democratic
side discontent with Clinton and a surprisingly broad appeal for Sanders
is making it far from certain that Clinton will gain enough delegates
to prevent a contested convention.
And, as one of the pundits this past weekend finally admitted, there
really is no prior convention or even election that provides a useful
guild, as up until recently the conventions weren't dominated by primary
elections, but by state conventions. So, we may be back, oddly enough,
to the old free form convention of old. Indeed, I suspect we are.
So, given that, my prediction right now is that neither the GOP or the
Democrats enter conventions with the result of the race determined.
And if that occurs, on the GOP side Trump will not be the nominee. He
lacks a majority of the delegates now, and that may still be the case by
the convention. And, if he has a plurality, it will not matter. I'd
give Cruz less than a 50% chance of being the nominee as well. Kasich,
maybe, but more likely than that a candidate not currently running.
And while I think it more likely that Clinton take the nomination in a
contested convention, I don't think its a guaranteed result by any
means. Sanders still stands a chance, as does a candidate not running
at the present time, including Biden. Sanders is actually within
striking distance of Clinton on pledged delegates, and if his tally
exceeds that of Clinton's the Superdelegates may truly being to fall
apart for Clinton. At least some will defect, or being to look for a
compromise candidate.
For the first time in a very long time, it's actually possible that the
candidates in the fall might not be those who ran prior to the
conventions.
First Commentary Followup
The real nature of the national contests this year is showing up in a
surprising way locally. Wyoming is actually getting a lot of attention
from the various campaigns, save for the Kasich campaign, which might
tell us something about it.
The Democrats hold their county conventions this Saturday. The vote at
the county level will determine the elected delegates. The
Superdelegates have already pledged for Clinton in spite of the strong
state wide general dislike of Clinton.
Demonstrating how tight this race really is, at the local and national
level, both campaigns have sent representatives of surprising nature
here recently. Earlier this week Jane Sanders spoke in Casper. On the
same day, Bernie Sanders spoke in Laramie. The choice of Laramie,
Wyoming's most liberal town (omitted Jackson, whose demographics don't
reflect the state very well) was a wise one showing some knowledge of
demographics in the state on the part of somebody.
And Sanders has been running television ads. These may be the first Democratic pre convention ads to be ever run in the state.
The Clinton's sent Bill Clinton to Cheyenne. In Cheyenne he gave a
speech where he mentioned the plight of coal. That shows that they're
paying attention to what is going on in the state, but it's also the
sort of thing that is fueling the sort of cynicism that is drawing in a
lot of people to Trump and Sanders this year. I doubt very much that
anyone here thinks the Clinton's really feel that coal has a long term
future in the national energy picture. Sanders is opposed to fracking,
which is part of his national plank, which will mean than in a general
election he'll be a flop here, amongst other reasons, but at least he's
honest about it.
The Republican state convention is on April 12. The GOP system is odd
as the county conventions have already been held and chose delegates,
with nine out of twelve going for Cruz. The remainder of the
twenty-nine total will be chosen at the state convention.
Cruz will come and address the convention, again showing how tight the
national election is. The Trump campaign is sending Sarah Palin to
address the GOP convention. Idaho Governor Butch Otter will cross the
state lines to address the delegates for Kasich.
On the Kasich campaign, their choice is the oddest and saddest, and they
basically haven't mounted a campaign here. Perhaps that's because they
felt that they didn't have a chance here, or perhaps they don't have the
cash or the base. There were Rubio supporters in Wyoming although Rubio
did not show well at the county conventions. This is all odd as Cruz
is vulnerable for his stated views, in Idaho, about public lands.
Public lands in public hands is a huge issue here and the vast majority
of Wyomingites are hugely in favor of keeping it that way. Trump is
known to favor keeping the lands in public hands, Cruz actually favors
privatizing them. Kasich's views are unknown, but if his views on this
issue mirrored Trump's, Clinton's and Sander's, he'd have an opening I
suspect. A lot of the votes going to Cruz here now are simply going to
him as he's not Sanders. Otherwise I suspect the support isn't deep.
Cruz is definitely running the best, and most politically astute,
campaign here on the GOP side.
___________________________________________________________________________________
April 8, 2016
Updated totals following Colorado.
Democrats (needed to win 2,383)
Clinton: 1,767 (469 Superdelegates)
Sanders: 1 110 (31 Superdelegates)
Martin O'Malley: 1 (now out)
Republicans (needed to win, 1,237)
Donald Trump: 743 (1 of which is an unpledged delegate)
Ted Cruz: 520 (12 of which are unpledged).
Marco Rubio: 171 or 173 (now out)
John Kasich: 143 or 144
Ben Carson: 8 (now out)
Jeb Bush: 4 (now out).
Carly Fiorina: 1 (now out)
Ron Paul: 1 (now out).
Commentary
Why is a Clinton victory regarded as inevitable, when she has over 600
delegates left to capture, while a brokered convention in the GOP is
regarded as likely when Trump is about 500 delegates away from securing
the GOP nomination?
I'm not saying that a Trump victory is inevitable. Rather, I"m saying that a Clinton victory isn't.
April 10, 2016
Yesterday the Wyoming Democratic Caucus was held. Here's the new table:
Democrats: Needed to win, 2,383.
Clinton: 1,774 (469 of which are Superdelegates)
Sanders: 1,117 (31 of which are Superdelegates)
Republicans: Needed to win, 1,237.
Trump: 743 (of which 1 is an unpledged delegates).
Cruz: 532 (of which 12 are unpledged delegates)
Rubio: 171. Rubio has suspended his campaign.
Kasich: 143.
Carson: 8 Carson has suspended his campaign.
Bush: 4 Carson has suspended his campaign.
Fiorina: 1 Fiorina has dropped out of the race.
Paul: 1 Paul has dropped out of the race.
Commentary
Okay, a couple of comments.
First of all, these tallies are based on those kept by the New York
Times. You can find alternate ones that vary, sometimes quite
significantly. None of the alternate tallies impact who is the front
runner, but they truly are different. The Times is generally a lower
tally.
Part of this might be based on the fact that there's actually more doubt
in who takes what in terms of delegates than might initially appear to
be the case. So at any one time time, there could be a 20 delegate
swing in the top contenders. Indeed, these tallies tend to change a bit
days after an election is supposedly concluded as the actual picking of
the delegates commences.
Next, the Wyoming Democratic vote was yesterday. This vote is very
illustrative of a couple of things. One of them is that Hillary Clinton
has a huge likeability problem. The second one is that Sanders has a
very difficult time getting to where he needs to be even "winning" a
state.
You'd have expected that a well established candidate link Clinton would
have blown the doors off the Sanders campaign bus against Sanders.
Wyoming's basic outlook on things tends towards the Libertarian, and
Sanders Socialist world outlook is about as far from the average
Wyomingites as can be imagined. None the less, Sanders took over 50% of
the Democratic vote. A lot of that is simply because people don't like
Hillary Clinton. Even with the endorsement of one of the state's
former governors Clinton couldn't take the state in terms of the popular
vote.
None the less, in delegate breakdown, she took the same number of
elected delegates that Sanders did. They each took seven. So if its a
"victory", it's a Pyrrhic victory. The real result is a wash. Neither
candidate really pulled ahead. If Sanders can really pull ahead
somehow, the seven delegates he took in Wyoming might matter. But right
now they surely do not. Moreover, all of the state's superdelegates
are presently pledged to Clinton, giving us an example of exactly what
Sanders has been saying shouldn't happen. The majority of Wyoming
Democrats, barely, might want Sanders, but the majority of the state's
delegates, after the superdelegates are considered, are going to
Clinton.
How the Democrats got themselves into this mess is interesting, but then
both parties are in a mess right now. The Democrats are set to
nominate the most unlikable candidate they've run in a century. She is
so unlikable that she should be easy pickings for the GOP, but for the
fact that the GOP seems to be heading towards nominating the least
electable candidate of their own since 1964. The parties, if their
front runners win the nomination, will pit two candidates against each
other that are hugely unpopular with large segments of the American
public. Perhaps, in an odd way, that wouldn't be a bad result as none
of the front runners is likely to have much truck with Congress. And
that would include those in second position. Cruz is barely more liked
by average Americans than Trump. Sanders is generally liked but his
positions on almost everything are not going to be taken seriously by
Congress.
For these reasons, oddly, the best hope for both parties are contested
conventions resulting in the picking of somebody other than somebody now
running. There's a relatively good chance of that happening with the
GOP and a slight chance of that happening with the Democrats. With the
Republicans, basically, if the current trend in the primaries continues
that will happen. With the Democrats, it's unlikely unless the
Superdelegates bolt in mass, which perhaps would be the best service
they could offer their party at this time.
On one final item, there's now a building movement to draft Gen. James
Mattis as a GOP candidate or even as a Third Party candidate. This
hasn't gone far enough yet to regard there being a high likelihood of it
happening, but there's definitely talk of it occurring. The retired
Marine Corps general was popular with servicemen who served with him,
and he's not a professional politician. He reportedly has some big
money behind a campaign to draft him, although there's no evidence that
he's supporting the movement himself. It's an interesting development
that should be watched.
2020
Governor Gordon requested a Federal disaster declaration for Wyoming. The Governor’s press release on the request stated.
Gov. Gordon requests federal disaster declaration for Wyoming
CHEYENNE, Wyo. – Governor Mark Gordon has submitted a request to President Trump asking for a major disaster declaration for Wyoming. The declaration would allow all 23 of Wyoming’s counties and the Eastern Shoshone and Northern Arapaho Tribes to access funding and services for crucial assistance during the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Though Wyoming has not reached the dire situations of some states, this declaration will help us to prepare and mobilize resources when we need them,” Governor Gordon said. “I look forward to a swift response to our request from the federal government.”
The Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act allows states to request a Public Assistance and Individual Assistance Disaster Declaration to respond to incidents that exceed capabilities of a state to respond effectively.
The declaration provides Wyoming the opportunity to access assistance from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers for construction of temporary medical facilities, if needed. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is reviewing sites in Wyoming to identify extra space for overflow patients and healthcare workers should it be needed.
“This requested declaration will help ensure Wyoming gains access to critical assistance as we continue our mission to respond to this pandemic,” Wyoming Office of Homeland Security Director Lynn Budd said. “Providing individual assistance programs will be vital to help our residents recover from this crisis.”
The declaration also allows the state to receive additional federal resources and services for Wyoming residents, including crisis counseling, disaster unemployment assistance, legal services, disaster case management and Small Business Administration disaster assistance.
As of April 9, Wyoming has 230 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in 18 counties.
On the same day, he proclaimed Good Friday, April 10, a Day of Prayer.
Governor Gordon proclaims April 10 Day of Prayer
CHEYENNE, Wyo. – Governor Mark Gordon will sign a proclamation tomorrow declaring Friday, April 10, 2020 a Day of Prayer in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic. The day of prayer is cross-denominational with the intent to unify people of many faiths during the crisis.
“Across all faiths and beliefs, we can all come together at this time of year to find a sense of peace and purpose,” Governor Gordon said. “I invite our leaders and citizens to pray that the present pandemic may be controlled, caregivers protected, our soldiers and their families watched over, the economy strengthened and life normalized.”
April 10 is Good Friday and is observed by many denominations as a day of prayer and fasting. Joining the Governor in this effort is the National Association of Evangelicals and the The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. People of all faiths are welcome to participate.
In Casper, on the same day, a small group of libertarian protesters gathered in Pioneer Park to protest the Governor’s emergency orders and seeking to have them lifted as being harmful to business. The National Outdoor Leadership School in Lander also announced layoffs given the COVID 19 Pandemic and its impact on their school.